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  • Jim Manclark

Covid-19: vaccinated v unvaccinated, the data.

The following information is taken directly from the Public health Scotland (PHS) website and a link has been provided at the end for anyone wishing to check out the information quoted in this article. All information in this article relates to the dates, 11th December 2021 - 7th January 2022. Data from previous months is also available on the PHS website.


There has been a lot of discussions, arguments and downright nastiness from people on both sides of the vaccination argument. The following data will not make a clear case for either but will show the facts as given by our own government per level of vaccination per Age-Standardised case rate per 100,000 people. Facts that are not so clear cut as many people on either side seem to proclaim.


One of the common myths is that being vaccinated will stop you getting Covid-19 or it's variants. This is wrong as the data below will show. The current covid vaccinations will only help lessen the symptoms if or when you do get covid. Also, the current covid vaccinations are themselves, not true vaccines. They are merely experimantal drugs approved by governments to try and both reduce hospitalisations and deaths. The longer term effects of these drugs may not be known for a long time and is something that should be taken into account and not simply dismissed by those on either side of the debate.


So, let's look at the data. Each of the three tables shown below all have a very common theme or trend when comparing the numbers of people catching, being hospitalised and in many cases, dying from covid, regardless of vaccination status.


This table shows the number of people who tested positive by a PCR test for Covid-19 with dates included in the table.


Now let us look at those numbers. The figures show that people who have not had any vaccinations are more likely to test positive than those people who have had no vaccinations. Personally I would say that this was a no-brainer, until you read further though that is. However, compared to those with 2 and 3 doses, the numbers tell a very different story. Before doing a comparison, let's look at the other two tables first.


Let us now turn to table 2 which states the number of hospitalisations of those testing positive from PCR tests for having Covid-19.


As in table 1, we can see a similar trend where those with a single dose are the least likely to be hospitalised after a positive PCR test for Covid-19. Again though, this does not stack up against those with multiple doses. This also includes people who were in hospital when they contracted covid. If they had not needed to be in hospital, they wouldn't have contracted covid many will say.


The final table we shall look at is deaths attributed to Covid-19 (stated on death certificates) using the same modelling as the previous tables.



In this table there is a slight change to the trend than in the previous two. Namely that those with 3 doses manages to just stay ahead of those who were unvaccinated.


One thing that seems to be quite clear from all these tables though is that vaccination status is not completely relevant to whether you will catch Covid-19 or not. Your vaccination status will also not always stop you from being hospitalised or in the worse case scenario, dying.


One of the odd things about this government report is how they define unvaccinated status. Below is a piece of the article which explains their definition of unvaccinated. COVID-19 vaccination status is defined as per the following:

•Unvaccinated:An individual that has had no doses of COVID-19 vaccine and has

tested positive for COVID-19 by PCR or has had one dose of COVID-19 vaccine and

has tested positive less than or equal to 21 days after their 1st dose of COVID-19

vaccine.

•Dose 1:An individual that has had one dose of COVID-19 vaccine and has tested

positive for COVID-19 by PCR more than 21 days after their 1st dose of COVID-19

vaccine or less than or equal to 14 days after their second dose of COVID-19 vaccine.

•Dose 2:An individual that has had two doses of COVID-19 vaccine and has tested

positive for COVID-19 by PCR more than 14 days after their 2nd dose of COVID-19

vaccine.

•Booster or3rddose:An individual that has hada booster or 3rd dose of COVID-19

vaccine and has testedpositive for COVID-19 by PCR more than 14 days after their

booster or 3rd dose of COVID-19 vaccine.


This seems to give the impression that unvaccinated people may well contain a number of those who have already had 1 dose of a vaccine. This in turn then skews the figures of those who have not had any vaccinations at all against those who have had 1 dose. Pay particular attention to this part..." or has had one dose of COVID-19 vaccine and has tested positive less than or equal to 21 days after their 1st dose of COVID-19 vaccine."


This tells us that they have put people with 1 dose into the same category as unvaccinated people if they had their 1st dose in the previous 21 days. Meaning that if you test positive for covid within 21 days of having your first dose, you will be classed as having been unvaccinated! Not just that but reading the actual report and ignoring the tables, they give the impression that unvaccinated people are more likely to catch Covid-19, be hospitalised by it and or die from it than those with 1,2 or 3 doses. Yet the figures in the tables themselves show "almost" the complete opposite.


Let's combine the figures provided and see how they actually stack up.



This combined table shows the total numbers for the data period covered. Some of you may look at this in a different way by comparing unvaccinated to total vaccinated of all levels combined. Doing this completely changes the entire table as you will see below.


However, you also have to take on board the definitions used of unvaccinated people within this data as mentioned above. By using their own definitions, how do we determine if an unvaccinated person has actually had a single dose of a vaccine? Does this mean that the data shown for unvaccinated people and those with a single dose are wrong? I would definitely say that it does skew the figures somewhat.


To take the raw data as above at face value and ignoring that some of those within the unvaccinated figures may actually have had a single dose of vaccine, we can see that the number of unvaccinated people contracting Covid-19, being hospitalised and dying are far less that those who have had any level of vaccination. Is this because these people are mostly asymptomatic and therefore not being tested due to showing no symptoms?




The report that this information is taken from implies that people who have had no vaccinations are more likely to catch and possibly spread the virus. At face value this seems obvious. However, when you look at the figures provided in the report, the opposite is the case. You could possibly claim that this is due to the levels of people who have received vaccinations against those who have not.


So what does this tell us about vaccination levels? Unfortunately, as said at the beginning, it does not help us to make things clear cut because other factors are not taken into consideration.


Firstly, the actual report implies that unvaccinated people are more likely to catch Covid-19, to be hospitalised by it and possibly die from it. Yet the figures in these tables taken from the report seem to differ totally.


Secondly, it does not tell us how many people who previously had covid then went on to later get 1, 2 or 3 doses of any vaccine(s). As such, these people would now be counted as having been in the vaccinated figures where we also know that people can still contract other variants of covid even after being vaccinated.


Thirdly, although not part of this particular report. During the many months when detection was not available due to no tests being available and when people were simply told to self-isolate if they had symptoms. We have no way of knowing how many people actually contracted covid. Therefore, all future figures, including these reports, are ultimately skewed because both vaccinated and unvaccinated people who had covid but who were not tested for it, will never be found and or included in any official figures. Theoretically, half of the population could have contracted covid and not known about it prior to testing starting.


Finally, we also have to take into account all those who contracted covid but had no symptoms and therefore were never tested nor included in figures or data such as the report used here and any other reports for that matter.


The point being made here is that people need to do what is right for themselves. In the case of those who refuse to be vaccinated, they should not be bullied or pressured into doing something they don't want to do, nor trust in some instances. In the same vein, if people feel safer by being vaccinated then they should be left alone to do what they feel is right for themselves also.


As said, we have no way to know the full extent of how many people already had covid regardless of vaccination status prior to any form of tests, trial drugs or vaccines becoming available. We know that lateral flow device tests area at best, 50-75% accurate while PCR tests are said to be accurate from 70% upwards.


The same is true about all the current trial vaccines which range from bewtween 50% to 70% effectiveness. The big issue here though is that although Covid-19 has mutated several times now, the trial vaccines have not changed and their effectiveness with regards to longevity is said to be up to 3 months. This is why people are being urged now to have a seond, third and even a fourth dose.


One final thing to also think about. Many elderly people who had been in hospitals were sent out to or back to care homes to be looked after who, having contracted covid while in hospital, then spread the virus to the residents and staff of said care homes. This was not the fault of the people themselves, nor the care homes but of the system that placed them there in the first place. Many of whom were known to or suspected to have had the virus.


This may not give all the answers to the vaccinated v unvaccinated issues but hopefully it will help people to realise that vaccination status is not all that it is made out to be and that both sides of this debate should be left alone to do their own thing. Demonising friends and family due to what you may have heard in a news bulletin or even this report is not going to stop covid spreading or mutating. Like the flu, covid is not going to just go away. It will be around for a long time and may never go away. So live your lives as best you can and take whatever precautions you feel you need to take but don't fall out with people because ultimately, there is no wrong or right it seems on either side.


Please follow this link to check any of the data tables used above and the rest of the report.


https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11076/22-01-12-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3sbcOSrt9LmTyBg6Ad5lWLtQqDU0vbTzmBhu717kfZ-uO2r4KGbUNTUZM








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